[Industry] To invest or not to invest in the self-driving travel market?

In recent years, my country’s road traffic network construction has advanced by leaps and bounds. The road system not only drives the accelerated circulation of materials in the space, but also expands the scope of people’s travel, which is one of the most important indicators of self-driving travel. As of the end of 2018, the number of cars in the country reached 240 million, an increase of 22.85 million over 2017, an increase of 10.51% .

From the perspective of the industry, after the per capita GDP exceeds 5,000 US dollars, tourism consumption is in the transformation and upgrading stage from sightseeing to leisure travel. However, the scarcity of leisure travel destinations in my country has led to a relatively lagging supply. Under the mismatch of supply and demand, consumers tend to choose travel methods with strong autonomy, high degree of personalization and relatively flexible time. Self-driving travel has rapidly emerged as a new consumption method. In 2018, the number of self-driving tours across the country reached 580 million, a year-on-year increase of 35.6%. With the continuous expansion of the market, the domestic self-driving travel industry will usher in a new round of investment boom.

The domestic self-driving travel industry is about to enter a golden period of development

As a country on wheels, the United States can be seen everywhere with drive-in theaters, drive-in fast food restaurants, motels all over the place, and campsites specially set up for RVs. The widespread use of cars has changed people’s lifestyles and consumption concepts, forming the so-called highways. culture.

The self-driving travel industry in the United States exploded in the 1920s and took off again in the late 1960s. China is currently in a critical period of explosive growth for the self-driving travel industry after the 1960s in the United States, and there is huge room for the follow-up market. Therefore, we regard the relevant indicators in the early 1960s in the United States as the conditions for judging whether the self-driving tour industry can enter a period of rapid growth, and then analyze the background of the domestic self-driving tour market and changes in consumption attributes, and explore the business logic and potential for realization in the industry at this stage. profit model.

Three historical stages of the development of the self-driving tour industry in the United States

The first stage (1930s-1960s): In the mid-1920s, during Roosevelt’s administration, the government relied on investment to stimulate the economy. As a national strategic investment, highway investment accounted for more than 3% of GDP output value. The convenience of travel was greatly improved, and self-driving tours rose across the country.

The second stage (1960s-1980s): In 1960, the per capita GDP of the United States exceeded 3,000 US dollars. Consumers gradually developed a spiritual demand for leisure and entertainment, and established a “highway trust fund”. By 1970, a total of 25 billion US dollars had been raised. Increase nearly 10 self-driving travel has become the most popular way of travel for Americans.

The third stage (1980s to now): In the mid-1980s, the per capita GDP of the United States exceeded 20,000 US dollars. The “National Scenic Byways” (National Scenic Byways) has established a complete tourism road system around experiential self-driving tours, complementing the national park system, forming a three-dimensional tourist space structure, integrating road traffic functions with landscape value, and enhancing The added value of tourism products along the way.

Resource control determines the position of the industrial chain Profitability depends on operational capabilities

The scale of my country’s self-driving tour market is about 450 billion. It combines traditional tourism and the complex ecology of the automotive aftermarket. The industry is also relatively deep and highly fragmented. There is a gap in the connection between products and services in different links. When industry standards have not been established and the degree of industrial organization is low, it is difficult for a single enterprise to form a complete circular management system. Therefore, we believe that the control of resources determines the

The bargaining power and profitability of an enterprise in the upstream and downstream of the tourism industry chain depend on whether the enterprise has a clear business model and good operational capabilities, and then uses capital to quickly integrate relevant industrial resources to achieve brand and scale improvement. At present, the primary and secondary markets are still in the theme-based investment stage. Companies with scarce resources (scenic spots, campsites, head IP, community foundation) will be given a higher valuation premium, and mature operation teams (professional, Innovation ability, dissemination and influence) will accelerate the profit return and enjoy the dividend brought by consumption upgrade.